The December 2025 PMI data reveal the United States  is exhibiting a classic "Two-Speed Economy"—its manufacturing base is deepening into recession (47.9%), while its services sector is accelerating (54.4%) due to holiday demand. India  is witnessing a synchronized "Cooling Off," with both manufacturing (55.0) and services (58.0) slipping to multi-month lows, weighed down by global trade friction and the initial shock of new US tariffs. United States The US economy ended 2025

The U.S. economy is entering 2026 in a state of macroeconomic dissonance. Headline indicators signal strength— GDP growth near 3–4%,  record corporate profits (~$3.4 trillion), and accelerating productivity. Yet simultaneously, unemployment has risen to 4.6–4.7% , the Sahm Rule has triggered, consumer delinquencies are climbing, and household savings are depleted. This is not a normal business cycle slowdown. It is a capital-biased, machine-led expansion where output growth n

As the world closes 2025, the labor markets of the United States and India appear, on the surface, to be moving in opposite directions. The United States is witnessing rising unemployment (4.6% ), weakening payroll growth, and growing white-collar displacement. India , by contrast, reports falling unemployment ( 4.7% ), rising labor participation, and strong headline hiring momentum. This contrast is deceptive. Both economies are experiencing the same underlying phenomenon:

Introduction By late 2025, global monetary policy has entered a fragile transition phase. Inflation has cooled from its peaks, but growth momentum is weakening unevenly across regions. Central banks are no longer fighting the same war. Instead, they are navigating different constraints —labor market risk in the U.S., credibility in the UK, fragmentation in Europe, and external shocks in India. The result is a cautious, data-dependent shift toward easing—without clear converge

Introduction In November 2025, the global inflationary landscape shifted from a uniform surge to a highly fragmented "divergence." While the headline figures in the UK and US show a consistent "glide path" toward cooling, the European Union remains split by internal disparities, and India is navigating a unique "barbell economy." The European Union The Euro area’s annual inflation rate remained stable at 2.1%  in November 2025, unchanged from October. This figure is marginall

Introduction October 2025 has emerged as a watershed month for the global economy, revealing a sharp divergence in inflationary trends. While the headline narrative is one of "cooling," the drivers differ fundamentally by region. India has plunged into a rare deflationary food cycle, dragging headline inflation to historic lows. The Euro Area has successfully returned to the vicinity of its 2% target, though it faces a "two-speed" economy where services remain hot while manuf

GDP outlook:  Q2 2025 real GDP surged 3.8% (SAAR) according to the BEA's third estimate, recovering from Q1's -0.6% contraction. For Q3, estimates diverge widely—the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracks 4.2%, while the New York Fed Nowcast shows 2.3%, with private forecasters ranging from 1.3% to 3.8%.​ Employment picture: September 2025 payrolls added just 119,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%—the highest since October 2021. Employment growth has essentially stalled s

Introduction: A Fragmented World of Price Pressures and Policy Dilemmas September 2025 delivered a striking divergence in global price data, moving the world past a unified inflation crisis into a fragmented landscape of localized challenges. While India  achieved a dramatic and policy-friendly disinflation, major economies in the West—the Euro Area , the United States , and the United Kingdom —continued to grapple with stubbornly elevated rates. The critical distinction now

October 2025 revealed strikingly divergent economic trajectories between the United States and India, with both nations facing unique challenges yet demonstrating resilient underlying fundamentals. The US experienced continued manufacturing weakness amid persistent tariff disruptions and the most damaging government shutdown in history, while its services sector showed remarkable recovery. Conversely, India maintained robust expansion across both manufacturing and services, t

Introduction As the global economy enters a phase of recalibration, central banks are navigating a delicate balance between inflation control and growth support. October 2025 marked a pivotal moment, with major monetary authorities — the Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of India, European Central Bank, and Bank of England — opting to hold or cautiously adjust rates. Their decisions reflect not only domestic macroeconomic realities but also the broader uncertainties of a fragment

The August-to-September 2025 transition highlights an unprecedented divergence between the US and Indian economies across manufacturing...

The BEA’s final Q2 2025 GDP print of +3.8% (annualized) is accurate as recorded, but it is mechanically driven and therefore fragile. The...

Introduction August 2025 brought forth a highly nuanced inflation landscape across major economies, with headline rates in some regions...

The U.S. economy staged a sharp comeback in the second quarter of 2025. After shrinking in Q1, growth rebounded to 3.3% annualized,...

Payroll growth stalled in August, with only +22,000 nonfarm jobs added lower than the 75,000 forecast , following downward revisions to...

The August 2025 PMI data highlights a sharp divergence in global economic trajectories. The United States is struggling to maintain...

A complex and increasingly divergent picture of global inflation emerged in July 2025.  While some major economies saw price pressures...

July 2025 presented a sharply divergent picture of the labor markets in the world’s two largest democracies. In the United States, hiring...

The global economic landscape in 2025 is marked by divergence, with the world’s three largest economies—the United States, India, and...

As of mid-2025, the world’s leading central banks — the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Reserve Bank...